Category: General, Academic, Speakers
There is not much to look forward to in the next 20 years if you went to hear what Ian Adam (father of Libby NC) MoD had to say to the International society (Nov 17 2011). His talk outlined the Ministry of Defence's Global Strategic Trends and Future predictions on the Character of Conflict. This report was created, he stated, to analyse the changing nature of conflict (the transition of 'old' Wars - e.g. WW2, to 'new' wars - e.g. Afghanistan), and to ascertain where spending cuts could be made.
The key issues facing the UK in the future will be how to protect our global interests and the finite resources with which to achieve these goals. Defence will remain the UK's ultimate insurance policy (e.g. at the Olympic Games there will be a massive military commitment), but the UK will tend to act with others where shared interests and values coincide.
Predictions in the investigation show that global conflict will increase as resources and the control of them become more of an issue. State failure will be a defining feature of future conflict with a global population explosion (7 Billion last year, 10 Billion by 2050). Cyber-warfare will increase and our military technological capability will be outpaced by countries like China and India with more emphasis on investing in smaller, irregular missions than state armies.
In the future armed conflict is likely to increase and will remain unpredictable and complex. The balance of power may deter direct intervention but globalisation will provide challenges to military capabilities. Climate change will amplify social, political & resource pressures and the 'Western' qualitative advantage cannot be assumed. Collective action will remain important but national interests may take more precedence in the future. Despite this gloomy prognosis, Mr Adam's presentation style was lucid and fascinating and very useful to all those studying Global Politics.
Rupert Venn (C3 U6)